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Club Tijuana U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 22:45

Club Tijuana U21

PPG 2.21 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Club Leon U21

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+19.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-17.7%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-111.5%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.6%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.3%3-14.3%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 44.4% 2.25 +19.3%

Draw 26.1% 32.3% 3.10 -11.5%

Away win 20.8% 33.3% 3.00 -22.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Over 3.5 25.8% 30.5% 3.28 -9.2%

BTTS 48.4% 57.5% 1.74 -15.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 44.1% 2.27 +3.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 37.3% 2.68 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.0%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Tijuana U211.5

Club Leon U210.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB TIJUANA U21 · PPG 2.21

CLUB LEON U21 · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Tijuana U21 (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +19.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.5%

Club Leon U21 (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Tijuana U21 face Club Leon U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Tijuana U21 a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Club Leon U21 21%, so Club Tijuana U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Club Tijuana U21 and 0.7 for Club Leon U21 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Tijuana U21 are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.29 for Club Leon U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Club Tijuana U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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