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Atlas U21 vs Tigres UANL U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Atlas U21

PPG 1.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tigres UANL U21

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.8%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 23.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlas U211.5

Tigres UANL U210.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLAS U21 · PPG 1.46

TIGRES UANL U21 · PPG 0.99

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlas U21 (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tigres UANL U21 (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlas U21 face Tigres UANL U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlas U21 a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Tigres UANL U21 22%, so Atlas U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atlas U21 and 0.9 for Tigres UANL U21 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlas U21 are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.99 for Tigres UANL U21.

Atlas U21 vs Tigres UANL U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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