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Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 23:00

Chicago Red Stars W

PPG 1.12 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bay FC W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-114.0%0-29.3%0-34.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.4%2-15.9%2-23.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

Draw 27.7% 26.7% 3.75 +2.3%

Away win 43.6% 57.8% 1.73 -24.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 60.6% 1.65 -17.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.5% 2.60 -15.1%

BTTS 52.5% 63.7% 1.57 -17.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 60.6% 1.65 -27.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.5%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 10.5%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago Red Stars W0.9

Bay FC W1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO RED STARS W · PPG 1.12

BAY FC W · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.41, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chicago Red Stars W (H) 28.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.9%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +2.3%

Bay FC W (A) 43.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago Red Stars W face Bay FC W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Red Stars W a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Bay FC W 44%, so Bay FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.3 for Bay FC W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Red Stars W are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.25 for Bay FC W. This match finished 0-0.

Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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