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Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 22:30

Corinthians

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.1%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.1%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 44.6% 2.24 +9.8%

Draw 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -9.6%

Away win 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Over 2.5 49.1% 42.6% 2.35 +15.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 22.2% 4.50 +16.7%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 40.8% 2.45 +10.5%

Away O1.5 19.6% 29.9% 3.35 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians1.5

Cruzeiro0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.64

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +9.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.6%

Cruzeiro (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians face Cruzeiro in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Cruzeiro 24%, so Corinthians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Corinthians and 0.8 for Cruzeiro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.40 for Cruzeiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.7%.

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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