Today / Brazil - Serie A / Botafogo vs Fluminense

Botafogo vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:00

Botafogo

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fluminense

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.2%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.8%1-110.0%1-26.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.8%3-16.2%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.6%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 45.5% 2.20 +14.6%

Draw 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Away win 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Over 2.5 60.4% 50.0% 2.00 +20.8%

Over 3.5 36.9% 29.0% 3.45 +27.3%

BTTS 59.9% 57.8% 1.73 +3.6%

Home O1.5 55.4% 46.5% 2.15 +19.1%

Away O1.5 35.7% 35.1% 2.85 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo1.9

Fluminense1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.67

FLUMINENSE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +14.6%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Fluminense (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Fluminense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Fluminense 24%, so Botafogo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Botafogo and 1.3 for Fluminense (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Fluminense. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +38.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Botafogo vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions