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Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:30

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 2.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

RB Bragantino

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-17.9%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.1%1-111.6%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.6%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-14.2%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 50.8% 1.97 +2.2%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

Away win 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Over 2.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Over 3.5 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Away O1.5 17.2% 28.6% 3.50 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Paranaense1.5

RB Bragantino0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 2.36

RB BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Paranaense (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +2.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.9%

RB Bragantino (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Paranaense face RB Bragantino in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Paranaense a 52% chance, the draw 26% and RB Bragantino 22%, so Atletico Paranaense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atletico Paranaense and 0.7 for RB Bragantino (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Paranaense are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.40 for RB Bragantino.

Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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