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Mirassol vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

Mirassol

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flamengo

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-111.5%0-28.6%0-34.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.4%2-16.6%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 25.0% 4.00 +24.4%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 42.4% 52.6% 1.90 -19.4%

Over 2.5 51.3% 51.8% 1.93 -1.0%

Over 3.5 30.0% 29.9% 3.35 +0.5%

BTTS 54.1% 56.5% 1.77 -4.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away O1.5 46.7% 51.3% 1.95 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.1%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol1.1

Flamengo1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL · PPG 1.64

FLAMENGO · PPG 1.91

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol (H) 31.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +24.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Flamengo (A) 42.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Flamengo 42%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mirassol and 1.5 for Flamengo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.91 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Mirassol vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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