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Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:00

Sao Paulo

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Coritiba

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.1%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-111.7%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 60.6% 1.65 -16.3%

Draw 24.9% 27.4% 3.65 -5.5%

Away win 24.4% 19.2% 5.20 +16.1%

Over 2.5 51.0% 51.3% 1.95 -0.5%

Over 3.5 30.0% 29.0% 3.45 +3.5%

BTTS 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Home O1.5 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Away O1.5 24.1% 25.0% 4.00 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Paulo1.6

Coritiba0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO PAULO · PPG 1.89

CORITIBA · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sao Paulo (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -16.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.5%

Coritiba (A) 24.4%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Paulo face Coritiba in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Paulo a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Coritiba 24%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sao Paulo and 0.9 for Coritiba (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Paulo are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.36 for Coritiba. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.2%.

Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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