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Atletico-MG vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Atletico-MG

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gremio

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.1%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.3%1-111.6%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 56.8% 1.76 -6.9%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 22.8% 22.0% 4.55 +2.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Away O1.5 23.1% 27.4% 3.65 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico-MG1.6

Gremio0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO-MG · PPG 1.78

GREMIO · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico-MG (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -6.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

Gremio (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico-MG face Gremio in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico-MG a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Gremio 23%, so Atletico-MG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Atletico-MG and 0.9 for Gremio (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico-MG are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.40 for Gremio.

Atletico-MG vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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