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Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:30

Fluminense

PPG 2.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Palmeiras

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.6%0-27.2%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.3%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.5%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 36.8% 2.72 -13.5%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Away win 42.9% 37.7% 2.65 +13.7%

Over 2.5 52.0% 45.5% 2.20 +14.4%

Over 3.5 30.0% 23.8% 4.20 +26.0%

BTTS 53.3% 54.1% 1.85 -1.4%

Home O1.5 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

Away O1.5 42.6% 37.7% 2.65 +12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.3%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense1.2

Palmeiras1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.18

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -13.5%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Palmeiras (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Palmeiras in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Palmeiras 43%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fluminense and 1.4 for Palmeiras (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 2.18 for Palmeiras. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.0%.

Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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