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Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.45 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mirassol

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.8%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.1%1-111.5%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 59.2% 1.69 -11.4%

Draw 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Away win 23.0% 20.0% 5.00 +9.0%

Over 2.5 51.9% 50.0% 2.00 +3.8%

Over 3.5 29.7% 28.6% 3.50 +2.4%

BTTS 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Away O1.5 27.7% 25.3% 3.95 +5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro1.7

Mirassol1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.45

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -11.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Mirassol (A) 23.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Mirassol 23%, so Cruzeiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cruzeiro and 1.0 for Mirassol (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.56 for Mirassol. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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