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Vitoria vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

Vitoria

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botafogo

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.7%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.8%1-111.2%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.4%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 44.2% 2.26 +3.1%

Draw 24.7% 30.8% 3.25 -11.8%

Away win 29.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

Over 2.5 54.3% 51.3% 1.95 +5.9%

Over 3.5 32.6% 29.4% 3.40 +10.8%

BTTS 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Home O1.5 48.5% 45.5% 2.20 +6.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria1.7

Botafogo1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA · PPG 2.20

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +3.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.8%

Botafogo (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria face Botafogo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Botafogo 30%, so Vitoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vitoria and 1.3 for Botafogo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.27 for Botafogo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.8%.

Vitoria vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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