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Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Chapecoense-sc

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bahia

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.5%0-27.8%0-34.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.0%1-111.5%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.3%2-17.0%2-25.7%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 29.9% 3.35 +3.2%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 44.8% 48.1% 2.08 -6.8%

Over 2.5 59.5% 54.1% 1.85 +10.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 31.3% 3.20 +16.8%

BTTS 58.7% 58.8% 1.70 -0.2%

Home O1.5 32.0% 35.7% 2.80 -10.4%

Away O1.5 47.7% 48.8% 2.05 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.7%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapecoense-sc1.2

Bahia1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPECOENSE-SC · PPG 0.70

BAHIA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chapecoense-sc (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +3.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Bahia (A) 44.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapecoense-sc face Bahia in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapecoense-sc a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Bahia 45%, so Bahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.6 for Bahia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.50 for Bahia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.8%.

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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