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Vasco DA Gama vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 19:00

Vasco DA Gama

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santos

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.0%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.1%1-110.8%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-15.8%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.0%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 51.8% 1.93 -7.8%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 28.2% 26.0% 3.85 +5.1%

Over 2.5 59.5% 50.0% 2.00 +19.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 28.2% 3.55 +29.6%

BTTS 60.2% 55.6% 1.80 +8.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Away O1.5 35.1% 30.8% 3.25 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.2%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasco DA Gama1.8

Santos1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 1.55

SANTOS · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vasco DA Gama (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -7.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Santos (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasco DA Gama face Santos in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasco DA Gama a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Santos 28%, so Vasco DA Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.2 for Santos (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.44 for Santos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.6%.

Vasco DA Gama vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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