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Penarol vs Central Espanol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

Penarol

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Central Espanol

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.7%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-110.6%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-16.1%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 69.0% 1.45 -19.7%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Away win 22.1% 14.7% 6.80 +30.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 51.3% 1.95 +4.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

BTTS 53.1% 47.6% 2.10 +11.5%

Home O1.5 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 19.0% 5.25 +14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penarol1.9

Central Espanol0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAROL · PPG 1.85

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Penarol (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -19.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Central Espanol (A) 22.1%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penarol face Central Espanol in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penarol a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Central Espanol 22%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Penarol and 0.9 for Central Espanol (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penarol are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.36 for Central Espanol. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.6%.

Penarol vs Central Espanol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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