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Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:30

Racing Montevideo

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Nacional

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.8%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.4%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.5%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 23.0% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.9% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 27.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Montevideo1.7

Club Nacional1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.92

CLUB NACIONAL · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Racing Montevideo (H) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Club Nacional (A) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Montevideo face Club Nacional in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Montevideo a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Club Nacional 23%, so Racing Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Racing Montevideo and 1.0 for Club Nacional (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Montevideo are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.45 for Club Nacional.

Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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