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Boston River vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 22:00

Boston River

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Danubio

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.9%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.9%1-113.1%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-17.8%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 42.4% 2.36 +10.4%

Draw 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Away win 24.3% 34.5% 2.90 -17.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 31.7% 39.2% 2.55 -19.2%

Away O1.5 21.1% 33.3% 3.00 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 15.9%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boston River1.2

Danubio0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 1.27

DANUBIO · PPG 0.83

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boston River (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +10.4%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Danubio (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boston River face Danubio in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boston River a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Danubio 24%, so Boston River are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Boston River and 0.8 for Danubio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boston River are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.83 for Danubio. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.0%.

Boston River vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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