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Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Maldonado

PPG 2.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Racing Montevideo

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-111.0%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.1%1-113.1%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.5%2-17.7%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 39.7% 2.52 +15.9%

Draw 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away win 23.2% 36.0% 2.78 -21.3%

Over 2.5 37.0% 40.8% 2.45 -9.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 21.1% 4.75 -1.0%

BTTS 47.7% 51.3% 1.95 -7.0%

Home O1.5 31.7% 35.1% 2.85 -9.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 32.3% 3.10 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maldonado1.2

Racing Montevideo0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO · PPG 2.36

RACING MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maldonado (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +15.9%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.6%

Racing Montevideo (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maldonado face Racing Montevideo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maldonado a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Racing Montevideo 23%, so Deportivo Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Deportivo Maldonado and 0.8 for Racing Montevideo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maldonado are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.80 for Racing Montevideo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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