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Defensor Sporting vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Defensor Sporting

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wanderers

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.3%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.3%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 45.9% 2.18 +0.1%

Draw 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Away win 26.8% 30.8% 3.25 -7.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 36.3% 41.7% 2.40 -12.9%

Away O1.5 25.4% 31.3% 3.20 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1✓ 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensor Sporting1.3

Wanderers0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSOR SPORTING · PPG 1.64

WANDERERS · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensor Sporting (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +0.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Wanderers (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensor Sporting face Wanderers in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensor Sporting a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Wanderers 27%, so Defensor Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Defensor Sporting and 0.9 for Wanderers (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensor Sporting are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.33 for Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Defensor Sporting vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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