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Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Defensor Sporting

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liverpool Montevideo

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-114.8%0-26.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.1%2-15.9%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.8%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 39.7% 2.52 -12.6%

Draw 32.4% 33.3% 3.00 -2.8%

Away win 32.8% 36.0% 2.78 -8.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

Over 3.5 17.7% 21.1% 4.75 -9.6%

BTTS 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% 35.1% 2.85 -13.9%

Away O1.5 21.1% 32.3% 3.10 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.6%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 0–1 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensor Sporting0.9

Liverpool Montevideo0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSOR SPORTING · PPG 1.50

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 1.74 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensor Sporting (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -12.6%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.8%

Liverpool Montevideo (A) 32.8%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensor Sporting face Liverpool Montevideo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensor Sporting a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Liverpool Montevideo 33%, so Defensor Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Defensor Sporting and 0.8 for Liverpool Montevideo (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensor Sporting are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.58 for Liverpool Montevideo.

Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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