Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Juventud vs Atletico Torque

Juventud vs Atletico Torque Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Juventud

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Torque

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-19.4%0-27.3%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.6%1-111.7%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-17.4%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.1%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 41.3% 2.42 -24.0%

Draw 24.7% 30.8% 3.25 -11.8%

Away win 43.9% 36.8% 2.72 +19.4%

Over 2.5 59.5% 51.3% 1.95 +16.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 29.0% 3.45 +25.9%

BTTS 60.3% 58.8% 1.70 +2.5%

Home O1.5 36.5% 42.0% 2.38 -13.1%

Away O1.5 47.3% 39.2% 2.55 +20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.3%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud1.3

Atletico Torque1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD · PPG 1.18

ATLETICO TORQUE · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventud (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -24.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.8%

Atletico Torque (A) 43.9%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud face Atletico Torque in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Atletico Torque 44%, so Atletico Torque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Juventud and 1.6 for Atletico Torque (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.73 for Atletico Torque. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.9%.

Juventud vs Atletico Torque Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions