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Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Progreso

PPG 0.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Maldonado

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-112.1%0-210.4%0-35.9%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.1%2-15.3%2-24.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.7%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -7.0%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 51.2% 50.5% 1.98 +1.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 47.6% 2.10 +12.8%

Over 3.5 31.8% 27.0% 3.70 +17.7%

BTTS 53.2% 55.6% 1.80 -4.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 30.3% 3.30 -0.3%

Away O1.5 47.7% 46.5% 2.15 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob53.2%

A 51% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–2 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Progreso0.9

Deportivo Maldonado1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PROGRESO · PPG 0.73

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO · PPG 1.36

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.77 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Progreso (H) 24.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.0%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Deportivo Maldonado (A) 51.2%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Progreso face Deportivo Maldonado in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Progreso a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Maldonado 51%, so Deportivo Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Progreso and 1.7 for Deportivo Maldonado (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Progreso are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.36 for Deportivo Maldonado. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.7%.

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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