Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Cerro vs Albion FC

Cerro vs Albion FC Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Cerro

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Albion FC

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-117.4%0-210.2%0-34.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.0%2-14.7%2-22.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.0%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Draw 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

Away win 40.6% 44.4% 2.25 -8.6%

Over 2.5 37.0% 40.8% 2.45 -9.3%

Over 3.5 18.1% 21.1% 4.75 -8.4%

BTTS 46.9% 50.0% 2.00 -6.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.0% 3.45 +4.2%

Away O1.5 34.7% 38.5% 2.60 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.9%

A 41% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–2 10.2%

#5 1–0 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro0.7

Albion FC1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO · PPG 1.36

ALBION FC · PPG 1.73

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.44, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cerro (H) 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.1%

Albion FC (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro face Albion FC in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro a 27% chance, the draw 32% and Albion FC 41%, so Albion FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Cerro and 1.2 for Albion FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.73 for Albion FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Cerro vs Albion FC Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions