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Wanderers vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 22:30

Wanderers

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-110.2%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-113.0%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.2%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.5%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

Draw 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

Away win 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 41.7% 2.40 +2.5%

Over 3.5 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

BTTS 47.7% 48.8% 2.05 -2.2%

Home O1.5 37.9% 40.0% 2.50 -5.3%

Away O1.5 21.1% 26.7% 3.75 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wanderers1.3

Cerro Largo0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WANDERERS · PPG 1.73

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wanderers (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +0.6%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.2%

Cerro Largo (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wanderers face Cerro Largo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wanderers a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Cerro Largo 24%, so Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Wanderers and 0.9 for Cerro Largo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wanderers are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.17 for Cerro Largo. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +11.2%.

Wanderers vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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