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Danubio vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Danubio

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cerro

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-16.2%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-110.7%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.6%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 50.5% 1.98 +6.9%

Draw 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -13.9%

Away win 21.2% 26.3% 3.80 -11.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 39.2% 2.55 +28.3%

Over 3.5 28.8% 20.0% 5.00 +26.4%

BTTS 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 41.7% 2.40 +18.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.0% 4.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.7%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Danubio1.7

Cerro0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DANUBIO · PPG 1.20

CERRO · PPG 0.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Danubio (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +6.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.9%

Cerro (A) 21.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Danubio face Cerro in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Danubio a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Cerro 21%, so Danubio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Danubio and 0.7 for Cerro (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Danubio are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.36 for Cerro. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +32.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Danubio vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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