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Seoul vs Bucheon FC Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 10:30

Seoul

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bucheon FC

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a clear edge.

+29.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-13.4%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.5%1-16.9%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.7%2-16.9%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.6%3-14.7%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-13.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.8% 59.5% 1.68 +29.0%

Draw 17.4% 28.2% 3.55 -38.2%

Away win 5.8% 19.6% 5.10 -70.4%

Over 2.5 42.8% 47.6% 2.10 -10.1%

Over 3.5 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -15.7%

BTTS 26.9% 51.3% 1.95 -47.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob26.9%

H 77% / xG 2.0-0.4 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.7%

#2 1–0 18.5%

#3 3–0✓ 12.6%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul2.0

Bucheon FC0.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL · PPG 2.00

BUCHEON FC · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Seoul (H) 76.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +29.0%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -38.2%

Bucheon FC (A) 5.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -70.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul face Bucheon FC in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul a 77% chance, the draw 17% and Bucheon FC 6%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Seoul and 0.4 for Bucheon FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 27% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Bucheon FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Seoul vs Bucheon FC Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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