Today / Croatia - HNL / HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek

HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 19:00

HNK Gorica

PPG 1.39 · HOME

UPCOMING

NK Osijek

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.4%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.4%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 40.7% 2.46 +22.3%

Draw 26.6% 34.5% 2.90 -13.7%

Away win 23.7% 33.8% 2.96 -17.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 26.7% 3.75 +5.0%

BTTS 50.8% 56.5% 1.77 -10.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 40.8% 2.45 +11.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 35.7% 2.80 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -32.4%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.8%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Gorica1.5

NK Osijek0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK GORICA · PPG 1.39

NK OSIJEK · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

HNK Gorica (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +22.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.7%

NK Osijek (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Gorica face NK Osijek in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Gorica a 50% chance, the draw 27% and NK Osijek 24%, so HNK Gorica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for HNK Gorica and 0.9 for NK Osijek (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Gorica are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.10 for NK Osijek. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - HNL Predictions