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HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

HNK Rijeka

PPG 2.01 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.01 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.0%0-27.5%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.3%1-112.7%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.4%2-17.3%2-25.0%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.1%3-12.8%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 35.0% 2.86 +5.3%

Draw 28.1% 30.3% 3.30 -4.4%

Away win 35.1% 43.9% 2.28 -20.0%

Over 2.5 50.3% 55.6% 1.80 -9.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

BTTS 52.5% 61.7% 1.62 -14.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.5%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Rijeka1.2

Dinamo Zagreb1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK RIJEKA · PPG 2.01

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.01

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HNK Rijeka (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +5.3%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.4%

Dinamo Zagreb (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Rijeka face Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Rijeka a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Dinamo Zagreb 35%, so HNK Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for HNK Rijeka and 1.4 for Dinamo Zagreb (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Rijeka are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 2.01 for Dinamo Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.3%.

HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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