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Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:30

Istra 1961

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.8%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.6%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.0%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 47.2% 2.12 +1.6%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

Away win 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.3% 3.10 -6.3%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Away O1.5 31.0% 36.4% 2.75 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -32.4%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istra 19611.4

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTRA 1961 · PPG 1.36

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Istra 1961 (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +1.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.5%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra 1961 face NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra 1961 a 48% chance, the draw 26% and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 26%, so Istra 1961 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Istra 1961 and 1.0 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra 1961 are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.06 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.6%.

Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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