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NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 16:30

NK Varazdin

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

HNK Hajduk Split

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.8%0-25.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.6%1-112.3%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-18.6%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 28.6% 3.50 +48.8%

Draw 25.8% 31.7% 3.15 -11.2%

Away win 31.7% 49.0% 2.04 -35.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 51.8% 1.93 +3.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 30.3% 3.30 +6.3%

BTTS 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Home O1.5 43.7% 33.9% 2.95 +28.9%

Away O1.5 36.9% 48.8% 2.05 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -32.4%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.9%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Varazdin1.4

HNK Hajduk Split1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NK VARAZDIN · PPG 1.71

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.61

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NK Varazdin (H) 42.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +48.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -11.2%

HNK Hajduk Split (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -35.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Varazdin face HNK Hajduk Split in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Varazdin a 43% chance, the draw 26% and HNK Hajduk Split 32%, so NK Varazdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for NK Varazdin and 1.3 for HNK Hajduk Split (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Varazdin are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.61 for HNK Hajduk Split. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +28.9%.

NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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