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Jeonbuk vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 10:30

Jeonbuk

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+33.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.6%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.4%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.4%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-17.3%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% 52.6% 1.90 +33.0%

Draw 17.7% 29.9% 3.35 -40.7%

Away win 12.3% 24.4% 4.10 -49.6%

Over 2.5 61.1% 47.6% 2.10 +28.3%

Over 3.5 38.8% 26.7% 3.75 +45.5%

BTTS 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 70% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk2.3

Incheon Utd0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK · PPG 2.00

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk (H) 70.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +33.0%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -40.7%

Incheon Utd (A) 12.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -49.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk face Incheon Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk a 70% chance, the draw 18% and Incheon Utd 12%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Jeonbuk and 0.9 for Incheon Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Incheon Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Jeonbuk vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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