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Jeonbuk vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

South-Korea - K League 1 logo South-Korea flag South-Korea - K League 1 Regular Season - 9 Jeonju World Cup Stadium· Jeonju Tuesday, April 21, 2026 10:30
Jeonbuk logo Jeonbuk PPG 2.00
1-2 MISS
Incheon Utd logo Incheon Utd PPG 1.25
Over3.5· +45.5% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk face Incheon Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk a 70% chance, the draw 18% and Incheon Utd 12%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Jeonbuk and 0.9 for Incheon Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Incheon Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 70.0%
Odds: 1.90 EV: +33.0%
Draw 17.7%
Odds: 3.35 EV: -40.7%
Away 12.3%
Odds: 4.10 EV: -49.6%
Model lean: Home
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.1% Odds: 2.10 +28.3%
Over 3.5 38.8% Odds: 3.75 +45.5%
BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.85 -4.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 2-1
4th 3-0
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Jeonbuk
2.30
Incheon Utd
0.85

Model Suggestion

Home +33.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+45.5%)

League Track Record

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%
O2.5/Under 56%
BTTS/No 48%
Score Hit 50%
ROI -73.5%
Bet Hit 17% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

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