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Recoleta vs Rangers de Talca Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 22:00

Recoleta

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rangers de Talca

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-15.9%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-110.5%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-15.5%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta1.8

Rangers de Talca0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 1.33

RANGERS DE TALCA · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 54.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rangers de Talca (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face Rangers de Talca in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Rangers de Talca 22%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Recoleta and 0.7 for Rangers de Talca (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.25 for Rangers de Talca.

Recoleta vs Rangers de Talca Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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