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Magallanes vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 19:00

Magallanes

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cobreloa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.3%0-23.7%0-32.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.9%1-18.4%1-27.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.2%3-15.5%3-24.7%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.3%4+-23.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 32.3% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magallanes2.0

Cobreloa1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.62

COBRELOA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Magallanes (H) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cobreloa (A) 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Magallanes face Cobreloa in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magallanes a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Cobreloa 32%, so Magallanes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Magallanes and 1.7 for Cobreloa (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magallanes are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Cobreloa.

Magallanes vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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