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Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 10:30

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Gangwon

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.5%0-114.8%0-25.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.7%2-15.3%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.5%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 34.7% 2.88 +5.4%

Draw 36.1% 31.3% 3.20 +15.5%

Away win 27.3% 40.8% 2.45 -33.1%

Over 2.5 20.0% 46.5% 2.15 -57.0%

Over 3.5 7.0% 23.8% 4.20 -70.6%

BTTS 28.4% 54.6% 1.83 -48.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob28.4%

D 36% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.5%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimcheon Sangmu0.8

Gangwon0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 20.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 1.00

GANGWON · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Gimcheon Sangmu (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +5.4%

Draw 36.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +15.5%

Gangwon (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu face Gangwon in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu a 37% chance, the draw 36% and Gangwon 27%, so Gimcheon Sangmu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Gimcheon Sangmu and 0.7 for Gangwon (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Gangwon. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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