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Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

South-Korea - K League 1 logo South-Korea flag South-Korea - K League 1 Regular Season - 9 Gimcheon Stadium· Gimcheon Tuesday, April 21, 2026 10:30
Gimcheon Sangmu logo Gimcheon Sangmu PPG 1.00
0-3 MISS
Gangwon logo Gangwon PPG 1.00
Draw· +15.5% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu face Gangwon in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu a 37% chance, the draw 36% and Gangwon 27%, so Gimcheon Sangmu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Gimcheon Sangmu and 0.7 for Gangwon (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Gangwon. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.6%
Odds: 2.88 EV: +5.4%
Draw 36.1%
Odds: 3.20 EV: +15.5%
Away 27.3%
Odds: 2.45 EV: -33.1%
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 20.0% Odds: 2.15 -57.0%
Over 3.5 7.0% Odds: 4.20 -70.6%
BTTS 28.4% Odds: 1.83 -48.0%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 0-1
4th 1-1
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Gimcheon Sangmu
0.85
Gangwon
0.69

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%
O2.5/Under 56%
BTTS/No 48%
Score Hit 50%
ROI -73.5%
Bet Hit 17% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

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