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Penarol vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 12 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 23:30

Penarol

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Juventud

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 80.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-12.4%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.4%1-16.2%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-18.2%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.0%3-17.2%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.0%4+-18.9%4+-22.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.8% 74.6% 1.34 +8.3%

Draw 13.1% 23.8% 4.20 -45.0%

Away win 6.1% 10.5% 9.50 -42.0%

Over 2.5 62.7% 51.8% 1.93 +21.0%

Over 3.5 40.5% 29.9% 3.35 +35.7%

BTTS 41.7% 45.5% 2.20 -8.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.7%

H 81% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 3–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penarol2.6

Juventud0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAROL · PPG 1.67

JUVENTUD · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Penarol (H) 80.8%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV +8.3%

Draw 13.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -45.0%

Juventud (A) 6.1%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV -42.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penarol face Juventud in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penarol a 81% chance, the draw 13% and Juventud 6%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Penarol and 0.6 for Juventud (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penarol are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.20 for Juventud. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Penarol vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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