S. Ameliano vs Nacional Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura Apertura - 17 Estadio Jose Tomas Silva· Asuncion Monday, April 20, 2026 23:30

S. Ameliano PPG 1.50

1-1 HIT CS3

Nacional PPG 1.25

Home· +42.0% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Ameliano face Nacional in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Ameliano a 55% chance, the draw 27% and Nacional 18%, so S. Ameliano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for S. Ameliano and 0.7 for Nacional (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Ameliano are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.6%

Odds: 2.60 EV: +42.0%

Draw 27.0%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -21.7%

Away 18.4%

Odds: 2.78 EV: -48.9%

Model lean: Home

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 36.3% Odds: 2.45 -11.1%

Over 3.5 17.1% Odds: 4.75 -18.8%

BTTS 38.8% Odds: 1.95 -24.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✔

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

S. Ameliano

1.44

Nacional

0.71

Model SuggestionHome +42.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 16.7%

Bet Hit 56% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.25)