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S. Ameliano vs Nacional Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 17 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 23:30

S. Ameliano

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Nacional

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 38.5% — a clear edge.

+42.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-18.3%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-111.9%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.6%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.8%3-14.1%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 38.5% 2.60 +42.0%

Draw 27.0% 34.5% 2.90 -21.7%

Away win 18.4% 36.0% 2.78 -48.9%

Over 2.5 36.3% 40.8% 2.45 -11.1%

Over 3.5 17.1% 21.1% 4.75 -18.8%

BTTS 38.8% 51.3% 1.95 -24.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.8%

H 55% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1✓ 11.9%

#4 0–0 11.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Ameliano1.4

Nacional0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

S. AMELIANO · PPG 1.50

NACIONAL · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

S. Ameliano (H) 54.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +42.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -21.7%

Nacional (A) 18.4%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -48.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Ameliano face Nacional in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Ameliano a 55% chance, the draw 27% and Nacional 18%, so S. Ameliano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for S. Ameliano and 0.7 for Nacional (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Ameliano are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.0%. This match finished 1-1.

S. Ameliano vs Nacional Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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