Cherno More vs CSKA 1948 Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Bulgaria - First League Wednesday, April 15, 2026 —

Cherno More PPG 1.50

0-4 MISS

CSKA 1948 Sofia PPG 1.86

Home· +7.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Cherno More face CSKA 1948 Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cherno More a 43% chance, the draw 26% and CSKA 1948 Sofia 31%, so Cherno More are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cherno More and 1.1 for CSKA 1948 Sofia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cherno More are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.86 for CSKA 1948 Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.0%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +7.5%

Draw 26.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -18.2%

Away 30.6%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -18.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.8% Odds: 2.20 +3.0%

Over 3.5 25.2% Odds: 4.20 +5.8%

BTTS 51.3% Odds: 1.85 -5.1%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Cherno More

1.41

CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.14

Model SuggestionBTTS -5.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+7.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5/Under 33%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 17%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.86)