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Cherno More vs CSKA 1948 Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Cherno More

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

CSKA 1948 Sofia

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.9%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.0%1-112.6%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.8%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 40.0% 2.50 +7.5%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.2%

Away win 30.6% 37.7% 2.65 -18.9%

Over 2.5 46.8% 45.5% 2.20 +3.0%

Over 3.5 25.2% 23.8% 4.20 +5.8%

BTTS 51.3% 54.1% 1.85 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.3%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 8.9%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cherno More1.4

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHERNO MORE · PPG 1.50

CSKA 1948 SOFIA · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Cherno More (H) 43.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +7.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.2%

CSKA 1948 Sofia (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cherno More face CSKA 1948 Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cherno More a 43% chance, the draw 26% and CSKA 1948 Sofia 31%, so Cherno More are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cherno More and 1.1 for CSKA 1948 Sofia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cherno More are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.86 for CSKA 1948 Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-4.

Cherno More vs CSKA 1948 Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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