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Kristiansund BK vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:15

Kristiansund BK

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Molde

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.5%0-26.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.3%1-112.1%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.7%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.3%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 23.1% 4.33 +52.4%

Draw 24.1% 24.4% 4.10 -0.7%

Away win 40.7% 59.5% 1.68 -31.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 67.6% 1.48 -20.8%

Over 3.5 32.3% 45.5% 2.20 -28.9%

BTTS 54.8% 67.6% 1.48 -18.9%

Home O1.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

Away O1.5 43.7% 65.4% 1.53 -33.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.8%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1✓ 7.7%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristiansund BK1.3

Molde1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSUND BK · PPG 1.14

MOLDE · PPG 1.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kristiansund BK (H) 35.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +52.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.7%

Molde (A) 40.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristiansund BK face Molde in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristiansund BK a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Molde 41%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kristiansund BK and 1.5 for Molde (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Molde. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Kristiansund BK vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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