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Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Valerenga

PPG 1.62 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bodo/Glimt

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-18.4%0-28.6%0-35.8%0-4+4.7%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.9%1-36.7%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.7%2-15.6%2-25.7%2-33.8%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.1%3-12.1%3-22.2%3-31.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.6% 16.7% 6.00 +28.6%

Draw 21.9% 20.8% 4.80 +3.1%

Away win 53.5% 69.4% 1.44 -23.0%

Over 2.5 63.5% 74.1% 1.35 -14.3%

Over 3.5 40.2% 54.1% 1.85 -25.6%

BTTS 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Away O1.5 54.7% 76.9% 1.30 -28.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.8%

A 54% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2✓ 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga1.2

Bodo/Glimt2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA · PPG 1.62

BODO/GLIMT · PPG 2.12

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.88 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga (H) 24.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +28.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.1%

Bodo/Glimt (A) 53.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga face Bodo/Glimt in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga a 25% chance, the draw 22% and Bodo/Glimt 54%, so Bodo/Glimt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valerenga and 2.0 for Bodo/Glimt (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 2.12 for Bodo/Glimt. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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