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Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Ham-Kam

PPG 2.14 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aalesund

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.2%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.0%1-16.2%1-23.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-111.0%4+-26.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.7% 47.6% 2.10 +31.7%

Draw 17.6% 27.4% 3.65 -21.5%

Away win 19.8% 32.3% 3.10 -23.2%

Over 2.5 67.4% 64.5% 1.55 +4.5%

Over 3.5 47.3% 42.6% 2.35 +11.2%

BTTS 64.3% 69.0% 1.45 -6.8%

Home O1.5 65.7% 56.5% 1.77 +16.3%

Away O1.5 35.7% 45.5% 2.20 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob64.3%

H 63% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 1–1✓ 6.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ham-Kam2.8

Aalesund1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAM-KAM · PPG 2.14

AALESUND · PPG 0.83

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.14 vs 0.83 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ham-Kam (H) 62.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +31.7%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -21.5%

Aalesund (A) 19.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ham-Kam face Aalesund in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ham-Kam a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Aalesund 20%, so Ham-Kam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Ham-Kam and 1.2 for Aalesund (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ham-Kam are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.83 for Aalesund. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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