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Lillestrom vs Rosenborg Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

Lillestrom

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rosenborg

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+27.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.0%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.4%1-110.8%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.9%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 42.0% 2.38 +27.3%

Draw 23.5% 27.4% 3.65 -8.5%

Away win 23.1% 37.7% 2.65 -23.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 63.7% 1.57 -16.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 40.8% 2.45 -20.9%

BTTS 53.7% 67.6% 1.48 -20.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Away O1.5 23.2% 48.8% 2.05 -31.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.7%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom1.8

Rosenborg0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM · PPG 1.71

ROSENBORG · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +27.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.5%

Rosenborg (A) 23.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom face Rosenborg in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Rosenborg 23%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lillestrom and 0.9 for Rosenborg (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.57 for Rosenborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Lillestrom vs Rosenborg Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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