Today / Spain - La Liga / Espanyol vs Levante

Espanyol vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

Espanyol

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Levante

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+15.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.4%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.3%1-111.1%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.7%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 47.6% 2.10 +9.8%

Draw 24.1% 31.3% 3.20 -13.7%

Away win 23.6% 28.2% 3.55 -9.7%

Over 2.5 55.1% 47.6% 2.10 +15.7%

Over 3.5 32.7% 26.0% 3.85 +25.9%

BTTS 54.5% 54.1% 1.85 +0.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Away O1.5 34.1% 31.3% 3.20 +9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Espanyol1.8

Levante1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.42

LEVANTE · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Espanyol (H) 52.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +9.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.7%

Levante (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Espanyol face Levante in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Espanyol a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Levante 24%, so Espanyol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Espanyol and 1.1 for Levante (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Espanyol are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.07 for Levante. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.9%.

Espanyol vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - La Liga Predictions