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Alaves vs Getafe Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 17:30

Alaves

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Getafe

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+23.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-19.0%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.6%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-18.9%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-14.2%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 42.6% 2.35 +14.0%

Draw 27.3% 36.2% 2.76 -14.8%

Away win 24.2% 28.2% 3.55 -8.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 33.3% 3.00 +49.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 16.0% 6.25 +47.6%

BTTS 52.7% 42.6% 2.35 +23.8%

Home O1.5 45.1% 33.3% 3.00 +35.3%

Away O1.5 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alaves1.4

Getafe0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAVES · PPG 1.45

GETAFE · PPG 1.34

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alaves (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +14.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -14.8%

Getafe (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alaves face Getafe in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alaves a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Getafe 24%, so Alaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Alaves and 0.9 for Getafe (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alaves are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.34 for Getafe. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.7%.

Alaves vs Getafe Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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