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Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:30

Sevilla

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.3%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.1%1-111.8%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 44.4% 2.25 +12.7%

Draw 24.9% 31.7% 3.15 -12.9%

Away win 25.0% 30.8% 3.25 -11.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 44.4% 2.25 +20.8%

Over 3.5 31.8% 23.8% 4.20 +33.6%

BTTS 54.5% 52.4% 1.91 +4.1%

Home O1.5 47.2% 41.7% 2.40 +13.3%

Away O1.5 33.4% 31.3% 3.20 +6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sevilla1.6

Rayo Vallecano1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SEVILLA · PPG 1.38

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sevilla (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +12.7%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -12.9%

Rayo Vallecano (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sevilla face Rayo Vallecano in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sevilla a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Rayo Vallecano 25%, so Sevilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sevilla and 1.1 for Rayo Vallecano (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sevilla are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.17 for Rayo Vallecano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.6%.

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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