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D. La Guaira vs Portuguesa Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 23:00

D. La Guaira

PPG 2.20 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Portuguesa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-17.5%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.1%1-110.5%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-17.3%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.8%3-13.4%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-11.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 57.8% 1.73 +2.4%

Draw 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -11.7%

Away win 13.2% 21.1% 4.75 -37.3%

Over 2.5 29.2% 47.6% 2.10 -38.7%

Over 3.5 12.2% 26.7% 3.75 -54.3%

BTTS 29.4% 52.4% 1.91 -43.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob29.4%

H 59% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.1%

#2 0–0✓ 15.2%

#3 2–0 14.6%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. La Guaira1.4

Portuguesa0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LA GUAIRA · PPG 2.20

PORTUGUESA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

D. La Guaira (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +2.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.7%

Portuguesa (A) 13.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -37.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. La Guaira face Portuguesa in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. La Guaira a 59% chance, the draw 28% and Portuguesa 13%, so D. La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for D. La Guaira and 0.5 for Portuguesa (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. La Guaira are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Portuguesa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-0.

D. La Guaira vs Portuguesa Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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