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A. Rafaela vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 23:00

A. Rafaela

PPG 1.75 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Agropecuario

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+40.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.2%0-15.2%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-027.2%1-16.9%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.3%2-14.7%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.2%3-12.1%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 46.5% 2.15 +40.6%

Draw 27.8% 35.1% 2.85 -20.8%

Away win 6.9% 27.8% 3.60 -75.2%

Over 2.5 21.6% 33.9% 2.95 -36.3%

Over 3.5 7.9% — — —

BTTS 16.6% 43.5% 2.30 -61.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob16.6%

H 65% / xG 1.3-0.3 / U2.5 22% / NoBTTS 17%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 27.2%

#2 0–0 20.2%

#3 2–0 18.3%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Rafaela1.3

Agropecuario0.3

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.6% · O3.5 PROB 7.9%

Form & verdict PPG

A. RAFAELA · PPG 1.75

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

A. Rafaela (H) 65.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +40.6%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -20.8%

Agropecuario (A) 6.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -75.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Rafaela face Agropecuario in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Rafaela a 65% chance, the draw 28% and Agropecuario 7%, so A. Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for A. Rafaela and 0.3 for Agropecuario (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 17% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Rafaela are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.67 for Agropecuario. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.6%. This match finished 4-1.

A. Rafaela vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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