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Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:15

Levski Sofia

PPG 2.51 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-15.2%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.4%1-19.2%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.2%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.5%3-14.7%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-13.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.4% 75.2% 1.33 -18.3%

Draw 23.3% 21.7% 4.60 +4.3%

Away win 15.3% 12.9% 7.75 +11.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 55.6% 1.80 -17.4%

Over 3.5 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

BTTS 45.5% 47.6% 2.10 -4.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 67.6% 1.48 -27.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 18.2% 5.50 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 61% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 2–0 16.2%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levski Sofia1.8

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVSKI SOFIA · PPG 2.51

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.26 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Levski Sofia (H) 61.4%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -18.3%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.3%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A) 15.3%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levski Sofia face Lokomotiv Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levski Sofia a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 15%, so Levski Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Levski Sofia and 0.5 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levski Sofia are averaging 2.51 points per game versus 0.77 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.6%.

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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