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Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 18:15

Spartak Varna

PPG 1.23 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.0%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.2%1-111.6%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.6%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.3%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 33.9% 2.95 +44.3%

Draw 26.6% 30.8% 3.25 -8.1%

Away win 24.5% 45.5% 2.20 -27.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.0% 3.45 -0.2%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 49.4% 37.7% 2.65 +30.9%

Away O1.5 34.5% 45.5% 2.20 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Varna1.7

Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK VARNA · PPG 1.23

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV · PPG 0.96

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Varna (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +44.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.1%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Varna face Lokomotiv Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Varna a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 25%, so Spartak Varna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Spartak Varna and 1.0 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Varna are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.96 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +59.0%.

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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