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Celje vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:15

Celje

PPG 1.76 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maribor

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.8%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Draw 26.8% 27.4% 3.65 -1.3%

Away win 27.3% 36.0% 2.78 -14.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 66.7% 1.50 -24.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.9%

BTTS 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 56.5% 1.77 -19.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 48.8% 2.05 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 54.1%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celje1.5

Maribor1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CELJE · PPG 1.76

MARIBOR · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Celje (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.8%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.3%

Maribor (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celje face Maribor in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celje a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Maribor 27%, so Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Celje and 1.1 for Maribor (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celje are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.25 for Maribor.

Celje vs Maribor Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions