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Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:15

Olimpija Ljubljana

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aluminij

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-111.4%0-25.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.3%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-17.8%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 61.7% 1.62 -30.2%

Draw 29.0% 25.0% 4.00 +9.6%

Away win 28.0% 22.0% 4.55 +16.4%

Over 2.5 45.7% 58.8% 1.70 -22.3%

Over 3.5 26.0% 35.7% 2.80 -16.3%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 32.6% 60.6% 1.65 -46.2%

Away O1.5 28.5% 30.3% 3.30 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 54.1%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpija Ljubljana1.2

Aluminij1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIJA LJUBLJANA · PPG 1.25

ALUMINIJ · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpija Ljubljana (H) 43.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -30.2%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +9.6%

Aluminij (A) 28.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpija Ljubljana face Aluminij in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpija Ljubljana a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Aluminij 28%, so Olimpija Ljubljana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.0 for Aluminij (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpija Ljubljana are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.17 for Aluminij. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.8%.

Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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